Our two guiding principles:
- Human nature changes very slowly over time, if at all. Therefore, history is relevant because human beings will react to similar circumstances in similar ways. The trick, however, is to find the relevant piece of history on which to draw parallels. In this sense, forecasting is an art, not a science.
- The objective of forecasting is to identify the significant but undiscounted aspects of the outlook. This is where the true opportunities for investors lie and where business can get the jump on competitors. A rehash of the consensus view, which is fully discounted in security markets and business plans, is of limited value.
The December 2024 INSIGHT report has been published—early! Happy Holidays!.
Follow us on Twitter: @agaryshilling
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It was great talking with @DennisTubbergen about everything going on these days: the #BankCrisis, @federalreserve p… https://t.co/ZsnZ5hwYXN -
The #FederalReserve will hike #interestrates until it tanks the economy--and a recession may already be underway, a… https://t.co/iNQQfXv4oL
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If you like #History, specifically #NewJersey history, you'll love my long-time editor Fred Rossi's book, "Jersey S… https://t.co/RAjSqwBY4d